Wednesday, June 09, 2004

SELF-RESPECT, RESPECT YOURSELF, YOU'RE THE BEST JUDGE OF WHAT'S RIGHT.

WELL, that wiped the smile off their faces. Labor supporters had been unable to contain their glee at the prospect of the Peter King-Malcolm Turnbull stoush in Wentworth, Sydney, occupying the headlines in the run-up to the federal election when Labor's leadership decided to even things up by parachuting Peter Garrett into the Labor stronghold of Kingsford Smith. Right next door, thank you very much.

The logic behind this astute political manoeuvre is that the former president of the Australian Conservation Foundation, senate candidate for the Nuclear Disarmament Party and constant critic of the Labor Party and its policies for the past 20 years would win hundreds of thousands of young green voters over to Labor, and in the process secure them a swag of marginal seats. Really?

It's difficult to know where to start analysing this tactic, but one might begin by asking why those who are constantly touted as potential vote winners never want to test their magnetism in marginal seats. They take refuge, instead, in the blue-ribbon variety. Strange.

The first implosion took nanoseconds. A half-dozen Labor hopefuls who had spent years as branch secretaries, presidents and delegates to boring-as-batshit Labor Party meetings in the hope that one day they might throw their hat into the ring for their chance at 15 years of fame suddenly discovered that an alien from outer space had been given the main prize.

Overnight the ALP decided on a re-run of the disaster in the Wollongong seat of Cunningham, where an unknown Greens candidate managed to win a blue-ribbon Labor seat because of Sussex Street's determination to foist their choice of candidate on to the electorate instead of holding a rank-and-file ballot. At least in Cunningham, head office's choice had been a long-term member of the Labor Party. Appealing to the ALP aspirants' sense of loyalty to persuade them to accept Garrett will generate nothing but horse laughs.

One also needs to ask: Where is the evidence that Garrett is a vote winner? Undoubtedly a significant number of Australian Greens voters are dedicated conservationists, but the Greens have also gathered up that section of the loony Left seeking new ways to attack the capitalist system since communism collapsed. One needs only to listen to the rantings of senators Bob Brown and Kerry Nettle on issues far removed from conservation to see how the extreme Left is influencing the Greens' policies. Needing about 7 per cent or 8per cent to elect a swag of senators, they can afford that luxury. Labor has to have a far broader appeal. Garrett's appeal will be to extremists.

Imagine the reaction in rural Australia, where Labor needs to win and hold seats to have a hope of gaining office. Garrett will go down like a lead balloon in these areas. He won't be able to venture outside the capital cities, unless it's to sing. John Howard can't believe his luck.

What can Garrett do to counter the charge Coalition members will make that he is an extremist on environmental issues? If he says he has changed his mind or that he will compromise, his credibility will be shot to pieces with those he is supposed to deliver to Labor.

I know how dogmatic and inflexible Garrett and his former stablemate Brown can be -- I had to deal with both as environment minister in the 1980s. They could afford the luxury of being uncompromising because of their small constituency. Mark Latham can't afford that luxury. Imagine the fun the media will have rushing between the two of them, playing one off against the other.

Garrett has nothing to offer Labor. The vast bulk of Greens voters will give Labor their second preferences because they have nowhere else to go. Far more than the Australian Democrats, whose vote they have taken over, they loathe the Coalition.

The myth that preferences from the Greens or Democrats could be secured by deals or direct appeal gained currency in 1990 when my successor in the environment portfolio, Graham Richardson, convinced Labor campaign strategists that Labor could win only if all those who were thinking of voting for the Greens or Democrats could be convinced to give their second preference to Labor.

That most of them were going to do so anyhow appeared to have escaped the dear fellow. Labor's extensive campaign asking people to give Labor their second vote was one of the silliest in Australian political history. Vast numbers of Labor voters suddenly realised they could have two choices. The result: Labor's primary vote dropped to one of its lowest levels in history. The votes returned as preferences and the legend of Richardson saving Labor was born.

If Garrett gets the nod for Kingsford Smith, Labor will need more than Richo.

Barry Cohen was environment minister in the Hawke Labor government.


I WANTED TO POST THIS ARTICLE, I FIND IT VERY FASCINATING AND WILL BE WAITING WITH BAITED BREATH TO SEE WHAT EVENTUATES.

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